Poll: Conservatives, Liberals locked in two-way race as election day nears

MIDWESTERN ONTARIO – With the federal election campaign nearing the end of its final week, a poll shows that no party is separating itself amongst Canadian voters.

A poll from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute shows that half of Canadian voters are not yet fully committed to their party choice.

The poll results show the Conservative Party (32 per cent) and Liberal Party (30 per cent) are in a statistical deadlock, each garnering support from three-in-10 voters. The NDP appear poised to increase their vote share, currently supported by 21 per cent of Canadians. The NDP received 16 per cent of the voter turnout in 2019.

Angus Reid says several dynamics have led to the stalemate, including a migration of voters of all age and gender combinations away from the incumbent Liberals. The only exception to this is among young women, where party support has increased four points since the campaign began.

In Ontario, the Liberals hold on to a key five-point advantage. In British Columbia, the Liberals have lost ground since the beginning of the campaign. Both the Conservatives and NDP lead the Liberals by double digits in that province. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois have pulled into a tie with the Liberal Party.

No leader appears to have gained standing from the federal debates more than Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet. While both NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and CPC leader Erin O’Toole had been gaining momentum throughout the campaign, that trend reversed this week, with Blanchet and Green Party leader Annamie Paul both trending upward in public opinion.

As candidates sprint to the finish, they do so with varied support bases. For the Conservatives, half of current voters say they are supporting the party because they dislike another more (53 per cent), not because they like what the CPC is offering (47 per cent). In contrast, 35 per cent of Liberals and 21 per cent of New Democrats say this of their own current vote choice.

More key findings of the poll:

If voters do switch their choice in the final week, it is the NDP that would gain most. One-quarter (25 per cent) of voters say this would be their second choice, ahead of the Liberals (14 per cent) and CPC (12 per cent). Another quarter (24 per cent) say they have no second choice at all.

The People’s Party continues to gain momentum in this campaign. Six per cent of voters now say they will support Maxime Bernier’s party on election day.

Singh leads in post-debate favourability (53 per cent) while both O’Toole (38 per cent) and Justin Trudeau (35 per cent) continue to be unfavourably viewed by a majority of Canadians.