Dear Editor:
RE: Health unit unveils local pandemic modelling, May. 7.
I am always concerned when I read the numbers that come out of models for the COVID-19 pandemic.
The recent number of projected deaths for the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph region – “close to 3,000” – is very unsettling. As I have been following the accuracy of modelling for the number of infected and possible deaths, it appears that there are constant inaccuracies.
When trying to find answers to this, there seems to be one common factor coming from a variety of experts. The enormous variables involved in putting together a model makes it extremely difficult to allow for accurate projections. Next is the lack of precise information, use of inaccurate information, and the relative short time period so far to generate huge volumes of information to be used in creating models.
Modelling can be very useful but caution must be exercised when making policies from these models. The fact is that no one knows the numbers and the greater the projection (in months or years), the less accurate it will be. As new information is added to the models, the results will obviously change.
I am not saying that modelling doesn’t work; it should be recognized that there are limitations to it. The model of up to 3,000 deaths is 100% accurate in fuelling greater fear and anxiety in the general public.
Some good news I found in looking for answers to dealing with this virus is that hand washing and sanitation is the most effective way to stay healthy. This is above wearing masks and gloves as the surface of these products can still transmit the virus if not properly handled. Masks and gloves are still useful, they are a good supplement to personal hygiene.
I trust my reason for this letter is understood. The decisions are not easy for those that have to make policies to address the situation but I am concerned for the effect of constant grim news the public hears. Kudos for the people doing their best to handle the situation in making those difficult decisions.
I want them to know that it is okay not to have all the answers, because nobody does. Stay calm, relax little and God bless.
Michael Thorp,
Mount Forest
