BRUCE COUNTY – Dr. Ian Arra, medical officer of health for Grey-Bruce, continues to say the only way to avoid a devastating fourth wave of COVID-19 this fall is to have 90 per cent of the population vaccinated.
He told Bruce County council on Aug. 5 that “99 per cent of our cases are the Delta variant.” The crucial 70-75 per cent vaccination rate for the original virus has been achieved, but that’s not sufficient for the much more contagious Delta variant.
Since the Delta variant appeared in this area in July, beginning at a rooming house in Hanover, it quickly spread to Owen Sound and then to Saugeen First Nation, primarily among people who weren’t fully vaccinated.
“We were told it would take at least 10 weeks to get the numbers down. I was cautiously optimistic we would be different (in Grey-Bruce) and we were,” said Arra.
He noted that there were over 300 high-risk contacts. Lately, most new cases of COVID-19 were already in isolation.
Enough information was generated to give public health a good idea where transmission was occurring. Arra said it began in groups where people were transient, of low economic status and living in crowded housing – either a single family or rooming house situation.
“There was no workplace transmission,” Arra said.
Transmission occurred at two parties attended by a large number of people. Arra described contact tracing as “complicated.” Some people didn’t tell the truth about who they’d been with and where they’d been. But contact tracing proved there was no transmission by the people who’d attended the parties and then went to “regulated places” such as restaurants, malls, shops, hospital and a doctor’s office.
“That’s why we moved to a modified step three,” Arra told council. “Transmission was in private settings.”
Thanks largely to what Arra described as robust contact tracing, “We wrestled it to the ground this time, but we could be in trouble come fall if we don’t up the vaccine.”
The strategy in July was to go after people who needed their second dose of vaccine, getting them to book their second appointment earlier.
“The mass vaccination hubs did their job,” Arra said.
Now the strategy is shifting to targeted immunization clinics at gyms, malls and wherever they’re needed. Arra commended Saugeen Shores Mayor Luke Charbonneau for being “very proactive in setting up effective clinics.” Vaccinations are also being offered at 35 pharmacies and 12 primary care clinics “similar to a flu shot approach,” he said.
He stressed to council that with widespread fatigue among the public, another lockdown “would not get the compliance.” The only alternative to a vaccination rate of 90 per cent is a “slow burn” – let the virus burn its way through the unvaccinated population, the way Alberta is. There is a high risk involved with that.
“We have to increase our level of vaccination before fall,” Arra said.
Charbonneau asked how possible is it to reach that 90 per cent.
“Seventy-five per cent seems to be plateauing,” said Charbonneau, noting there are still a lot of people to be vaccinated. That 90 per cent will be hard to reach.
“I’d love for it to be 100 per cent,” he said, “but we have to deal with reality.”
Arra suggested the only way to get to 90 per cent by September would be a “policy-based approach.” In other words, government-mandated, as opposed to the present voluntary approach.
According to the province, Grey-Bruce is edging close to 80 per cent, but it’s still a long way from the target. The question in Arra’s mind is, if there’s a fourth wave, can the response be sustained.
Charbonneau raised the possibility of municipalities lifting the present emergency order, so they could reinstate it in the fall.
“We’re going to have to put some fuel in the tank,” he said.
While Arra said public health would support whatever the municipalities decide, he’s recommending keeping the emergency in place until the end of the year, since certain orders public health uses require it to be in place.
He noted if the emergency were lifted and then reinstated, “vaccination takes six weeks to make a difference – that takes us to November. It would be easier to keep emergency status in place.”
County Coun. Chris Peabody, mayor of Brockton, expressed thanks to health unit staff.
“Thank the front-line staff – we know they’re very overworked and stressed,” he said.
“We need that 10 per cent to join us,” Peabody added. “Is there anything community leaders can do?”
Arra had two suggestions. One was to identify places where younger people (ages 12-40) gather – this group has a lower vaccination rate of about 70 per cent – and get municipal approval for a clinic. The second was communication.
“People with two doses are our ambassadors,” he said. “They need to urge young people to educate themselves about the vaccine.”
